The NCAA Tournament is now less than three weeks away, and the bubble field is consolidating. With 51 teams essentially in the tournament already — thanks to 23 one-bid conference auto-bids and 28 at-large locks — there are now 23 legitimate bubble teams fighting for 17 spots.
That’s quite the drop from last week’s bubble, which featured 29 teams fighting for 18 bids, but a number of high-profile losses last week shrunk the field.
Let’s look at the most prominent areas of the field. First, the top seed line. Due to remarkable parity, with top-ranked teams losing like never before, the top seed line has changed frequently this year. However, here’s what it looks like for now.
The Top Seeds:
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Kansas — The Jayhawks are in full control of the Big 12, thanks to big wins over Oklahoma, Kentucky, West Virginia and Baylor since their last loss, to Iowa State in late January.
Villanova — Despite a loss to Xavier, Villanova is still in position to get a No. 1 seed. However, that will require winning out, including the Big East Tournament.
Oklahoma — The Sooners probably aren’t going to win the Big 12, thanks to two losses to Kansas, but their overall profile — with wins over Villanova, West Virginia (twice), Iowa State, Baylor, Texas and Wisconsin — is very strong.
North Carolina — This last spot could go to UNC, Virginia or Xavier. I’m going with UNC because Xavier lacks as many big wins as the other two, and Virginia has more iffy losses (George Washington, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech to North Carolina’s Northern Iowa). Saturday’s UNC-Virginia game should decide who gets this spot.
On the other side, here’s a look at the edge of the bubble:
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Last four in:
Butler, St. Joseph’s, George Washington, St. Mary’s
First four out:
Tulsa, St. Bonaventure, Washington, Gonzaga
Here’s a full look at the bubble teams and their resumes, along with their projected rank:
[table id=BubbleWatch22616 /]
ACC
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Locks: North Carolina, Virginia, Duke, Miami, Notre Dame
Work to do: Syracuse, Pittsburgh
The ACC field is consolidating. Florida State and Clemson made last week’s bubble watch, but they collectively went 0-4 in the past week, with three of those losses to non-NCAA Tournament teams. That’s not going to help you when you’re on the bubble.
Syracuse and Pitt are the only two ACC teams truly left in the balance, and they played this week, as Pitt won at the Carrier Dome. That helps the Panthers, who add arguably their second best win of the year.
However, Syracuse should be just fine, too, unless it really messes up. The Orange lost to both Pitt and Louisville this week, but as long as they take care of business the rest of the way, they’ll likely get into the tournament.
Big East
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Locks: Villanova, Xavier
Work to do: Providence, Butler, Seton Hall
Seton Hall nearly had a disastrous loss to St. John’s last weekend, but the Pirates stole a win from the jaws of defeat to stay on the bubble, then beat up on Providence on Thursday night. They only have one really solid win (against Wichita State), but in a weak bubble field, the Pirates might not have to do much more win make the tournament. Butler is in a similar boat, with one “bad” loss (at Marquette) and a few fine wins. Can they get more of each?
Providence was nearly a lock early in the season, thanks to the star play of Kris Dunn. However, the Friars have faltered in the second half of the Big East schedule. They lost two games this week, to Xavier and Seton Hall. Those aren’t bad losses, but it would be in Providence’s best interest to start winning again.
Big Ten
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Locks: Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue
Work to do: Michigan, Wisconsin
In the Big Ten, it’s going to come down to Michigan and Wisconsin. Right now, both are on the bubble.
Wisconsin is inexplicably looking in the best shape. The Badgers were a mess early in the season, with losses to Western Illinois and UW-Milwaukee, and they started the Big Ten season with losses to the heavyweights, and somehow, Northwestern. But since the Northwestern loss, the Badgers have been on a roll, and they continued that roll over the past two weeks, with wins at Maryland and Iowa. Thanks to the Iowa win, the Badgers look safely in.
Michigan is a different story. The Wolverines have always been assumed to be in, but they’re still a good win shy of clinching a spot. They lost at Ohio State, which doesn’t look great, but also have a nice win over Purdue from two weeks ago. Michigan finishes the season at Wisconsin and home against Iowa. Win one of those and they’re in. Lose both, and the first round of the Big Ten Tournament might become a play-in game, if it isn’t already.
Big 12
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Locks: Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas
Work to do: Texas Tech
The Big 12 field is almost locked up, as Texas Tech has a very good case to become a lock soon. After a terrific run that included wins against Iowa State, Baylor and Oklahoma, the Red Raiders extended their winning streak to five by taking care of Oklahoma State and TCU. Those aren’t good wins, but Texas Tech really needed to avoid a bad loss. Steal one of the next two against Kansas and West Virginia, and the Red Raiders are a lock. Lose them both and they’re still probably okay.
Pac-12
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Locks: Oregon, Arizona, Utah, Cal, USC, Colorado
Work to do: Oregon State, Washington
Colorado is the lone team from last week’s bubble watch to move up from the bubble to lock status. The Buffaloes did lose to UCLA this past week, but they upset Arizona, too. That upset gives them another good win, in addition to good wins against Oregon and Cal, and a pretty good win against Oregon State. That should be enough.
Oregon State keeps chugging along toward its first NCAA Tournament berth since 1990, and by golly, it looks like the Beavers are going to do it. They lost to Oregon (respectable), then took down fellow bubble team Washington.
That means bad news for the Huskies, who are currently three spots out of the tournament in my projections. They can really help themselves with a win against Oregon on Sunday.
SEC
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Locks: Texas A&M, Kentucky, South Carolina
Work to do: Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt
Oh, LSU. After consecutive losses to Tennessee and Arkansas, the Tigers aren’t going to even sniff the bubble. Somehow, they wasted a whole year of Ben Simmons.
But for as much as LSU dropped, Vanderbilt made a big jump. The Commodores are making a late push for the tournament, and they picked up a nice road win against Florida. The last three games provide excellent opportunities for good wins, with games against Kentucky and Texas A&M.
Alabama saw its stock drop a bit after a previous five-game surge that included wins over Texas A&M, Florida and LSU. The Crimson Tide lost two straight — one to Kentucky (no harm there) and one to Mississippi State (much more harm there). Florida also took the loss to Vanderbilt, which didn’t help the Gators, but didn’t hurt a ton, either.
Everyone else
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Locks: Dayton, 23 autobid teams (including Wichita State and Monmouth)
Work to do: UConn, Cincinnati, Tulsa, Gonzaga, George Washington, St. Mary’s, VCU, Temple, St. Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure
We’re assuming there are no upsets in the other conferences. Theoretically, an awful team could win the AAC tournament, with UConn and Cincinnati still making it as an at-large. That would take an at-large bid away from another team.
The Atlantic-10, Missouri Valley, MAAC, AAC and West Coast Conference all have potential bid thieves. If you’re a fan of a bubble team, your rooting interest is clear: You want the favorite to win every game.
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Remember that we’re not counting the West Coast Conference as a one-bid conference. The WCC could theoretically not have any team worthy of at-large inclusion, but it will still get a team in the tournament. So even though St. Mary’s is the last team in right now, the teams behind the Gaels shouldn’t worry about them much, because somebody from the WCC is getting that spot.
But let’s say there are no bid thieves: What will the selection committee make of the smaller schools?
Two years ago, the committee was partial to smaller schools, choosing them over power conference teams because of their high win totals, despite the fact that they played weaker competition. That’s how the Atlantic-10 ended up with six teams in the tournament … and had five of them lose in the first round.
Last year, power conference teams seemingly got the benefit of the doubt, with UCLA sneaking in, despite a 20-13 record and a fairly weak resume.
Teams like Tulsa and St. Bonaventure will have very legitimate tournament chances if the committee selects teams like it did two years ago, but if it follows last year’s pattern, the bigger schools will benefit instead.